New England Patriots links 9/04/18 - Previewing Pats’ Week 1

matchup vs. Texans TEAM TALKPress Conference transcript: Bill Belichick.From the NFL: The Good Morning Football crew previews Texans at Patriots. (2.45 min. video)LOCAL LINKSMike Reiss attempts to rank where this 2018 WR group fits with past years Hjalte Froholdt Jersey Boys , the top being 2007 with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth and Kelley Washington.Bill Burt finds there’s a lot hinging on the Pats without Julian Edelman, and with no Amendola to replace him.Doug Kyed describes Patriots newest practice squad receiver Jace Billingsley as a Julian Edelman disciple.Nick O’Malley digs up 20 times the media said Tom Brady and the Patriots dynasty were ‘done’ -- and were completely wrong.Tom E. Curran would’ve bet that 2016 2nd-rounder Cyrus Jones made it through Cutdown Day, but in New England it’s about performance, not potential.Andrew Lykins (BostonSportsExtra) Trey Flowers’ future as a Patriot: Can he be re-signed with his next contract?Zack Cox scouts the Texans and tells us five things we should know. 1. They have one of the NFL’s most exciting young players behind center.Steve Balestrieri (PatsFans) First impressions of the Texans: Front seven one of the best in the NFL.Karen Guregian says the Patriots can’t afford to let Tom Brady take another beating from the Texans, like last year (8 QB hits, 5 sacks).Adam London hears DL coach Brendan Daly talk about the difficulty of defending Deshaun Watson.Tom E. Curran highlights Bill Belichick on Deshaun Watson, ‘You can have him, but you don’t have him.’Mike Dussault (PatsPropaganda) What will 2018 Patriots unveil Sunday?CBS Boston notes Bill Belichick expects to see vintage J.J. Watt in Week 1.Karen Guregian Patriots Notebook: Jeremy Hill’s learning skills earned him a running back spot; Newest WRs trying to catch on; More.Amanda Sabga shares five thoughts on the roster as it rounds into shape.Mike Dussault (PatsPropaganda) Patriots set initial practice squad.Ryan Hannable passes along a report that the Patriots worked out two players yesterday, TE Stephen Anderson and OT Eric Smith.Thomas Murphy (DiehardBostonSportsFans) Monster predictions for the 2018 NFL season.Zack Cox reports Sony Michel and J.C. Jackson get new jersey numbers ahead of the season opener.Michael Hurley comments on a resurfaced Bizarro-World video that shows Michael Felger being downright giddy for the Patriots prior to the 2003 season.NATIONAL NEWSInteractive (ESPN) 2018 NFL Preview: Bold predictions. Breakout candidates. Over/under picks. Execs unfiltered. QB depth chart rankings.New England Patriots.Staff (SI) NFL Predictions 2018: Playoff picks, Super Bowl LIII Champion, award winners Infant Hjalte Froholdt Jersey , and more.Judy Battista (NFL.com) Fifty-three NFL things to watch on the road to Super Bowl LIII.Gregg Rosenthal (NFL.com) NFL playoff picture ... from the future! How it’ll look in Week 17.John Breech (CBS Sports) 2018 NFL season: Bold predictions, final record for all 32 teams and playoff picks.Sean Wagner-McGough (CBS Sports) NFL roster cuts: 32 things to know, from the Raiders’ wild day to the Steelers’ QB decision.Danny Kelly (The Ringer) The NFL’s most likely surprise contenders.Report (AP) NFL 2018: Questions abound, from anthems to rule changes.Kevin Clark, et al (The Ringer) How many good quarterbacks are there really? (9.19 min. video)Robert Mays (The Ringer) The defining traits of the coaching trees taking over the NFL.Jenny Vrentas (SI) Tom vs. Time: The epilogue that answers the questions Brady left hanging.Danny Kelly (The Ringer) The biggest winners of the NFL preseason.Robert Mays (The Ringer) NFL preseason power rankings, Part I: Rookie quarterbacks, bad defenses, and Gruden grinders.Zach Braziller (NY Post) Bill Belichick pounces on receiver Jets just cut.Manish Mehta (NY Daily News) Dear Jets fans, Sam Darnold is officially your starting QB, and you are allowed to get excited and enjoy this ride.Report (AP) Sitting stars in preseason raises age-old readiness question.Report (AP) ESPN’s new Monday night crew prepares for opener.Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) NFL Week 1 Picks: Patriots 31, Texans 21. Super Bowl Sunday is here and the New England Patriots will once again play on the NFL’s biggest stage. Their opponent, an Los Angeles Rams team that is as well-rounded as any the Patriots have faced this year — a team with an explosive offense, a powerful defense, and a big-play special teams unit. To further analyze the matchup Hjalte Froholdt Jersey Draft , let’s take a look at some of the advanced stats heading into the game (courtesy of SB Nation’s Bill Connelly; for his methodology please click here).Patriots offense vs Rams defenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldPatriots offense (l.) vs Rams defense (r.)New England has hit its offensive groove lately and was especially able to improve its third down success rate in the open field: the number jumped from 37.3% to 39.8% over championship weekend. The Rams defense also is productive in this category, however, as it allows only 34.8% to be converted. The two teams match up similarly when it comes to success rate — defined as gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down. It will be a fun battle to see if the Patriots can continue to move the football like they did the last two games.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LinePatriots offense (l.) vs Rams defense (r.)The battle between the Patriots offense and Rams defense also projects to be a close one inside New England’s 10-yard line: the team’s success rate of 35.5% is not all that different from Los Angeles’ 35.7%. And even though the Patriots had one turnover in this part of the field — a tipped interception in week one — they have taken care of the football very well when starting in unfavorable field position.Red ZonePatriots offense (l.) vs Rams defense (r.)Finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals will be a key in the Super Bowl, but the Patriots have been inconsistent in this part of the field all year long. Luckily for them, they have improved drastically in the playoffs and since last week improved their numbers across the board. What also helps is that the Rams are a good matchup from New England’s perspective: while they are good between the 11 and 20 and when it comes to making positive plays on first-and-goal, New England’s offense has the statistical upper hand in the other categories.Third DownsPatriots offense (l.) vs Rams defense (r.)As it did in the divisional and championship round of the playoffs, New England will likely again try to dictate the tempo of the game by playing a ball-control game when on offense. A key to that is keeping drives alive on third down, something that has not always worked perfectly for the team but again improved in the postseason: the Patriots’ success rates on third-and-mediums and third-and-longs improved quite a bit against the Kansas City Chiefs — and New England will need to bring its A-game yet again today. the Rams defense is solid in both areas.Blitz SituationsPatriots offense (l.) vs Rams defense (r.)When in obvious passing situations — 1st and 18 or more, 2nd and 14 or more, and 3rd and 3 or more — the Patriots may not produce the most big plays, but they do generally move the football well and more importantly avoid negative plays: Tom Brady has been sacked on just 5.2% of his dropbacks in so-called blitz situations. The Rams, on the other hand Hjalte Froholdt NFL Jersey , have had a comparatively hard time getting to the quarterback on such downs despite having Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and company rushing the passer.Patriots defense vs Rams offenseNormal down and distance in the open fieldPatriots defense (l.) vs Rams offense (r.)As can be seen, the Rams offense is good across the board when moving in the open field. The team gains significant yardage in any given situation, produces big plays, and puts itself in positions to be successful on third downs. The group will certainly be a test for a New England offense that has been inconsistent at times this year — with the AFC title game being a good example for that. And while L.A. lacks the firepower of Kansas City’s offense, the team is certainly not too far behind and capable of taking advantage.Backed Up Situations Near the Goal LinePatriots defense (l.) vs Rams offense (r.)One thing to watch for: the Rams and quarterback Jared Goff in particular have been prone to turning the football over deep in their own territory. Overall, it happened four times so far this season that a play starting inside the 20-yard line resulted in a giveaway. While New England’s defense has not come away with a turnover in this part of the field yet, Sunday would certainly be a good time for that.Red ZonePatriots defense (l.) vs Rams offense (r.)For as good as the Rams offense is in the open field, it is comparatively mediocre in the red area — which should help a Patriots defense that has not been that much better in this part of the field. This will be an interesting battle to watch especially inside the 10-yard line: Los Angeles has success on 41.2% of its plays, New England on 42%. Making drives stall in this part of the field would help the Patriots a great deal come away victoriously.Third DownsPatriots defense (l.) vs Rams offense (r.)As noted above, the Patriots will need to keep drives alive on third downs in order to play their style of game. From a defensive perspective, this includes getting off the field when in a position to do so. However, Los Angeles has been very good at extending series no matter the situation: the team has solid success on thirds and long, medium Hjalte Froholdt NFL Draft , and short — the latter two problematic areas for New England all year long.Blitz SituationsPatriots defense (l.) vs Rams offense (r.)Even when forced to play from behind the sticks, Los Angeles’ offense has found consistent success this season. New England, meanwhile, has been up and down particularly when it comes to generating pressure. This, however, has to do more with scheme: the team likes to trust its coverage to win matchups down the field in such situations.All in all, the battle between the Patriots and Rams will be a tight one if the advanced stats are to be believed. New England’s offense appears to have the upper hand in some areas, while Los Angeles should be able to move the football fairly well between the numbers. Ultimately, the game will come down to the usual deciding factors: the turnover battle, converting third downs, and scoring (or avoiding) touchdowns in the red zone instead of field goals.